Adjusting BCIS data for the effects of covid 19

BCIS Price and Cost data is based on historic projects and data collection and in some circumstances will need to be adjusted in the short term for the effect of the Covid 19 Lockdown on prices.

The Lockdown has three potential affects:

• Productivity: changes in productivity resulting from the implementation of site operating procedures (SOP).
• Preliminaries:
  • Lengthening due to extended contract periods
  • Thickening due to increased cost of supervision for SOP, increased welfare, PPE etc.
• Market conditions: reduced demand, reduced availability of resources, increased overheads

For Estimates based on the BCIS £/m2 data (Average prices and Analyses), such as order of cost estimates, reinstatement cost estimates and depreciated replacement cost estimates, users should consider including an adjustment for the Covid 19 impact. The Construction Leadership Council (CLC) will be issuing guidance on the issues to be considered.

The changes in pricing level resulting from changes in productivity will eventually be reflected in the Tender Price Index and forecasts so users should beware of double counting.

The changes in productivity will not be reflected in the BCIS cost indices (General Building Cost Index, etc.) however, changes in cost of materials due social distancing, etc. requirements in the factory will be. The cost indices are based on factory gate prices and increases in costs from merchants resulting from shortages should be adjusted for in market conditions.

For estimates based on our unit rate data an adjustment should be considered. If it is to be updated by the TPI forecasts these will reflect our assumptions, if the forecast of our cost indices is used, they will not.

Price Adjustment Formulae Indices (PAFI), These will not reflect the changes in productivity resulting from the SOP, etc. On existing fluctuating contracts where indexed inflation adjustment clauses apply any impact of the SOP, etc will need to be accounted for separately, again the CLC guidance covers this.

The BCIS residential reinstatement models are adjusted using the House Rebuilding Cost Index and BCIS will be making adjustments to this index to allow for additional rebuilding costs.

Subscribers should use their professional judgement in making adjustments.

BCIS have been collecting evidence on the impact of the SOP, etc. on productivity via its surveys and will issue this through its online services.

We are reviewing all products/services to identify calculators or adjustments to reflect implications Covid 19

*Short Term: adjustment required to currently available prices until new data and forecasts are published.